Seagull_JL
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Sigma Scan, a collection of future issues and trends developed by the Outsights-Ipsos MORI partnership, commissioned by the UK Government's Horizon Scanning Centre at the DTI Office of Science and Innovation. For more information about the Scan, click here. Please click on one of the five images below to start your search in a particular area, or on the Search button if you wish to do a text search of the whole database.
http://www.sigmascan.org//ViewIssue.aspx?IssueId=40
Summary: KEY DRIVER
ABSTRACT: **Demand for international travel and tourism to varied destinations is growing, and particularly so from populous and increasingly prosperous Asian countries such as China.
Such tourism offers developing countries a vital means of income, and can bring western riches to deprived parts of the world. However, there are potential disadvantages such as damage to the environment or possible spread of disease.**
Demand for international travel continues to grow steadily. It is expected that by 2020 there will be 1.6 billion international travellers per year, compared with 663 million in 1999, when the industry was worth $453 billion. Presently more than 200 million jobs are generated by tourism [2].
There will be greater pressure on airports to handle more planes and process more passengers. As a result existing airports will require expansion [1], as evidenced currently at Heathrow, and, potentially, new sites will be required.
Demand for new, ‘untouched’ destinations could both benefit and denigrate developing nations. In Rwanda, tourism has been influential in helping to protect the mountain gorillas and their habitat. Tourism generated $654 million in Costa Rica in 1996, and $502 million in Kenya in 1997 [2]. However, irresponsible tourism, corrupt governments and poor planning can all result in tourism damaging the environment [2].
It is likely that there will be an increasing number of older travellers, as populations in the developed world age, which will further the growth of the industry [6]. International visa structures might need to change with more visa-waiver agreements [6]. This could lead to a shift in the bargaining power of certain destinations, as they seek to dictate the terms by which they open up to visiting tourists. This may help reduce the damage inflicted on local culture by the influx of new visitors, whilst simultaneously maximising the value to the local economy [4].
However the lessons from many parts of the world suggests that mass tourism can be immensely harmful to the local and global environment and can place great strain on local resources, albeit for a substantial short term reward for the economy.
Implications: A wider ramification of this change might be the increased scope for spreading global diseases faster. This was in evidence in 2003 when cases of the Sars virus were reported in several different parts of the world having been spread by international travellers [8].
It is possible that increased air travel might bring with it more deadly and more widespread pandemics [3]. Aircraft emissions are a rapidly growing contributor to levels of greenhouse gases [7]. There could be a negative impact on birds and other wildlife, increased air and noise pollution around airports, and increased risk of a fuel spill or hazardous chemical accident near airports [1].
Time zones might be enlarged, or a global working clock established as people move around the world faster, more easily and more frequently.
As nations become more dependent on their tourism industry, there may be greater incentive to keep internal peace and maintain good relations with neighbours. Peace in the Kashmir region in 2005 brought with it an influx of tourists encouraged by the improved relations between India and Pakistan [9].
While increased tourism will bring money into developing countries economies, the effects will not be totally positive [10]. The income generated by tourism is largely spent on covering the costs of creating and maintaining a tourist infrastructure. As a result, instead of receiving income, these countries may be faced with numerous negative effects of tourism: destruction of the environment, especially in coastal regions and in mangrove and primeval forests, exceedingly high consumption of energy, wasteful consumption of water and water pollution, destruction of social and cultural structures and an impoverished population which migrates to the cities and centres of tourism because the people have lost their traditional means of earning a living [10].
Early indicators: Increased competition in the airline industry. Opening up of formerly "closed" countries to mass tourism e.g. Myanmar; N. Korea; Iran; Increase in near misses recorded in air traffic control at key hubs. Announcement of new waves of airport building. Increasing union tensions caused by increasing pressures, competition and long hours in the airline industry. Announcement of major new research by aeroplane manufacturer into silent/quiet jets/ alternative propulsion methods;[5] International moves to designate more areas of outstanding beauty and/or important biodiversity as World Heritage sites (e.g. parts of Papua New Guinea)
Drivers
& Inhibitors: Drivers: Budget airlines; alternative fuel sources; increased global security. cheaper costs; international mindset; increased capacity of planes
Inhibitors: rising oil prices; green aviation tax; anxieties about flying caused by increased near misses/crashes/terrorism; marked climate change rendering many areas less appealing for holiday visits; Drivers: Budget airlines. Alternative fuel sources; Increased global security. Cheaper costs. International mindset. Increased capacity of planes
Parallels
& Precedents: Start of low-cost model of airlines pioneered by Southwest in the United States, and Ryanair and EasyJet in Europe. Deregulation of the airline industry. Advent of steam powered ocean-going vessels. Mass pilgrimages of the middle ages. Advent of the "Grand Tour" of the c.19th in Europe in the aftermath of the Napoleonic wars. The emergence of the hippy trail in the 1960s and the new consciousness it brought, especially in reactions to the Vietnam war. Extensive travel and exploration undertaken by colonial administrators under the British Empire. Spread of SARS in 2003.
http://www.sigmascan.org//ViewIssue.aspx?IssueId=40
Summary: KEY DRIVER
ABSTRACT: **Demand for international travel and tourism to varied destinations is growing, and particularly so from populous and increasingly prosperous Asian countries such as China.
Such tourism offers developing countries a vital means of income, and can bring western riches to deprived parts of the world. However, there are potential disadvantages such as damage to the environment or possible spread of disease.**
Demand for international travel continues to grow steadily. It is expected that by 2020 there will be 1.6 billion international travellers per year, compared with 663 million in 1999, when the industry was worth $453 billion. Presently more than 200 million jobs are generated by tourism [2].
There will be greater pressure on airports to handle more planes and process more passengers. As a result existing airports will require expansion [1], as evidenced currently at Heathrow, and, potentially, new sites will be required.
Demand for new, ‘untouched’ destinations could both benefit and denigrate developing nations. In Rwanda, tourism has been influential in helping to protect the mountain gorillas and their habitat. Tourism generated $654 million in Costa Rica in 1996, and $502 million in Kenya in 1997 [2]. However, irresponsible tourism, corrupt governments and poor planning can all result in tourism damaging the environment [2].
It is likely that there will be an increasing number of older travellers, as populations in the developed world age, which will further the growth of the industry [6]. International visa structures might need to change with more visa-waiver agreements [6]. This could lead to a shift in the bargaining power of certain destinations, as they seek to dictate the terms by which they open up to visiting tourists. This may help reduce the damage inflicted on local culture by the influx of new visitors, whilst simultaneously maximising the value to the local economy [4].
However the lessons from many parts of the world suggests that mass tourism can be immensely harmful to the local and global environment and can place great strain on local resources, albeit for a substantial short term reward for the economy.
Implications: A wider ramification of this change might be the increased scope for spreading global diseases faster. This was in evidence in 2003 when cases of the Sars virus were reported in several different parts of the world having been spread by international travellers [8].
It is possible that increased air travel might bring with it more deadly and more widespread pandemics [3]. Aircraft emissions are a rapidly growing contributor to levels of greenhouse gases [7]. There could be a negative impact on birds and other wildlife, increased air and noise pollution around airports, and increased risk of a fuel spill or hazardous chemical accident near airports [1].
Time zones might be enlarged, or a global working clock established as people move around the world faster, more easily and more frequently.
As nations become more dependent on their tourism industry, there may be greater incentive to keep internal peace and maintain good relations with neighbours. Peace in the Kashmir region in 2005 brought with it an influx of tourists encouraged by the improved relations between India and Pakistan [9].
While increased tourism will bring money into developing countries economies, the effects will not be totally positive [10]. The income generated by tourism is largely spent on covering the costs of creating and maintaining a tourist infrastructure. As a result, instead of receiving income, these countries may be faced with numerous negative effects of tourism: destruction of the environment, especially in coastal regions and in mangrove and primeval forests, exceedingly high consumption of energy, wasteful consumption of water and water pollution, destruction of social and cultural structures and an impoverished population which migrates to the cities and centres of tourism because the people have lost their traditional means of earning a living [10].
Early indicators: Increased competition in the airline industry. Opening up of formerly "closed" countries to mass tourism e.g. Myanmar; N. Korea; Iran; Increase in near misses recorded in air traffic control at key hubs. Announcement of new waves of airport building. Increasing union tensions caused by increasing pressures, competition and long hours in the airline industry. Announcement of major new research by aeroplane manufacturer into silent/quiet jets/ alternative propulsion methods;[5] International moves to designate more areas of outstanding beauty and/or important biodiversity as World Heritage sites (e.g. parts of Papua New Guinea)
Drivers
& Inhibitors: Drivers: Budget airlines; alternative fuel sources; increased global security. cheaper costs; international mindset; increased capacity of planes
Inhibitors: rising oil prices; green aviation tax; anxieties about flying caused by increased near misses/crashes/terrorism; marked climate change rendering many areas less appealing for holiday visits; Drivers: Budget airlines. Alternative fuel sources; Increased global security. Cheaper costs. International mindset. Increased capacity of planes
Parallels
& Precedents: Start of low-cost model of airlines pioneered by Southwest in the United States, and Ryanair and EasyJet in Europe. Deregulation of the airline industry. Advent of steam powered ocean-going vessels. Mass pilgrimages of the middle ages. Advent of the "Grand Tour" of the c.19th in Europe in the aftermath of the Napoleonic wars. The emergence of the hippy trail in the 1960s and the new consciousness it brought, especially in reactions to the Vietnam war. Extensive travel and exploration undertaken by colonial administrators under the British Empire. Spread of SARS in 2003.
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