Worldwide shortage of pilots (forecast)

Patriot

Patriot

ALPA Member
According to Alteon's forecast:

* India has fewer than 3,000 pilots today, but will need more than 12,000 by 2025.

* China will need an average of 2,162 new pilots a year, or 43,240 by 2025.

* Central America and South America will need 1,344 new pilots a year. South America has fewer than 10,000 commercial jetliner pilots today. It will need nearly 27,000 by 2025.

* Europe will need an average of 3,747 new pilots a year.

* The Middle East and Africa will need an average of 1,205 pilots a year.

No region of the world will need more pilots than North America over the next 20 years, according to Boeing. Canada and the United States have about 64,000 jetliner pilots today, but will need more than 128,000 by 2025.


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/313681_pilotshortage30.html
 
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Pax

Pax

Старожил
Patriot,
It sounds like you have pretty good job security
;)
 
B

Be02

Новичок
Yeh, sure. That's what they used to say in 1999-2000.
 
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Зм. Гор.

Зм. Гор.

Новичок
There will be shortage of qualified pilots, but don't forget about recent college grads willing to work for next to nothing:) And companies will go for them :)) Right now boys with 200 TT getting FO seat at RJ with Air Canada Jazz :) I guess we will have shortage with college instructors:D
 
310

310

Сторожил
In the Middle East aviation companies solve this problem easily by advanced salary. Let’s say, captain of A320-A340 has 14-16000 USD per month. FO accordingly 9-11000. Additional benefit is coming from absent of any tax on local salary. Comparing to 50% in EU it is really nice.
Companies have ambiguous plans to increase their fleets by twice or three times in the next couple of years. To get sufficient amount of pilots widespread recruiting activity is going on. In recent years pilots from English Commonwealth were the most welcomed, however, now plenty of South Americans, Indonesians, Africans and Europeans fly here. Even some Russians (from former USSR) are working for blossoming Arabian companies.
I think, the problem of pilot shortage exists only for them who wants to exploit professionals for peanuts. Doesn’t matter in the USA or in Russia.
 
Lukas

Lukas

Старожил
the problem of pilot shortage exists only for them who wants to exploit professionals for peanuts. Doesn’t matter in the USA or in Russia.
with 70blh a month (40 of it are guaranteed) our captains on 742F get about usd12K a month. 13% Russian taxation is one of the lowest in the world. Who can call it "exploitation for peanuts"? Meanwhile the pilots are leaving – the shortage of professionals is so huge that pilots are still prefer to change the company for a few dollars more
 
310

310

Сторожил
The easiest way to keep all your staff happy is to ask companies in the region about salary for same job, add 1 RBL and relax. But not forever. Do not forget to update info every month :)

By the way, 12K sounds great! Even for 742F. Especially for Russia. Couple of years ago I got info about ABC 742F captains income usd7K. It's really great improving during last two years. And what money roughly you expect to pay for captains on coming soon 744F?
 
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310

310

Сторожил
I couldn't find any info on ABC web site about career opportunity. Recently I talked to some friends of mine who fly for ABC. They said that company policy is to accept newcomers into right seat only regardless of previous experience. Is this right?
 
AEGOR

AEGOR

Левоцентрист
Apparently, pilots job with ABC is very well paid. Probably, the highest payroll amongst the major airlines in Russia.
However, there is a serious disadvantage which makes it not so atractive for a lot of candidates.- 50% of the lifetime is spent away from home... This matters for aged pilots especially. In this respect the conventional airline might look much better... IMHO..
 
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310

310

Сторожил
You are absolutely right saying about aged pilot matters. As far as I know many of them (not only aged) spent at home no more than 5 days a month.
However this is normal pilot’s life.
In my company I have officially 8 days off within any 30 consecutive days. Sometimes more, but this means that I will get less money at the end of month. So, I and all my present colleagues are interested to fly as much as possible.
I am surprised why they still say about professional shortage in ABC? Well organized company, very attractive salary, brand new plains (coming). It should be the long line of applicants in front of the main office.
Any way, I hope once in the future I’ll see myself in the cockpit of B747-8F :)
 
AEGOR

AEGOR

Левоцентрист
310, agree. It's normal. However, there is a difference between job in carriers like ABC or AFL Cargo and conventional airlines like S7, AFL etc..

A lot of pilots (especially those who are 40 and older) prefer to get back home after 12-15 hours spent at work. To see kids, dacha, go shopping etc on daily basis.. If you fly conventional airline, you can usually afford this style of life..

However, If you fly for cargo airline, you are away from home for 10-15 days. Then you are at home 3-5 days and then you are away again... Sometimes it's quite difficult. I know several well qualified and experienced 1st class pilots who did not consider the job with ABC (or smilar) only because of this reason...
 
310

310

Сторожил
Everyone has his own reason. I fly conventional airline and you can believe me or not, but half of yang pilots prefer to stay on A320 and not to be transferred to 330 or 340 just because of very short turnarounds in 320s schedule. They want to see how their kids grow. However, guys who have grown kids prefer long layovers outside of base. They fly or want to fly on 330, 340. In this company no big difference in salary between 320 and 340. Matter is meal allowance only during layovers.
I think, for those who have not small kids to grow the best lifestyle is to go and live far away of homebase. Life is very short. 10 - 15 years and you are a retired person. To go and see something you’ll have to pay for tickets and hotels. So far it’s free J
Dacha and similar activity is not for professionals. It’s for the pensioners.
 
M

MAKC

Местный
I agree with 310. There is always a bright site in sating away from home. You probably don't even have to spend money on food, while you're away from home base.
 
Pilotguy

Pilotguy

737-3,5,7,8,9,900ER CA
MAKC,
That is the case almost everywhere. At my airline $48/day.


The point of the tread is - if pilots are leaving certain company it's because they think it is better elsewhere. Money is one thing, but the question is the whole life style.

I had a job that paid $12K/month with 5 days off a month.

And I left it for a job with $5K and 18 days off, flexable schedules, 401K, plan B, all bennies, worldwide travel and at a place where bosses don't poop into my brain.
That's what people are looking for.
 
O

OLEG AN-2

Новичок
We are talking about shortage! Where does it exist? What aviacompany should I aply to?
My expirience very modest( 5000 hrs. an-2, class 2 ), but I can speak english, have high edukation,avia English ( 4 months cours) I do too.

But everywhere I come, it does not seem they were glad to see mee. (AFL, S-7, SkyExpress you name it.) Please, advise me.
 
310

310

Сторожил
I think, companies need pilots who can fly modern planes. Actually shortage exists for such professionals only. It's nice to speak English fluently, however, you expect to get pilot's job not translator's, is it?
 
Patriot

Patriot

ALPA Member
OLEG AN-2,
Keep knocking the doors and don't give up. Stop by regularly and see recruiters at the companies that turned you down previously and it'll work out. Keep thinking of the ways to improve your resume and don't believe people who say - "you can't"!

Squeaky wheel gets oiled first!

Most of the shortage we are talking about is not here yet. It'll grow tremendously as the Worlds transport needs increase.
 
O

OLEG AN-2

Новичок
Thanks for your answers, ofcourse I did not expect any specific directions for my further applications, but...
 
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Pilotguy

Pilotguy

737-3,5,7,8,9,900ER CA
Oh, Patriot! Never ending enthuziastic, positive thinker!!!! If only every one could have a half of your optimism it would have been a beautiful world!!

I second that, Oleg - keep knocking and the doors will open.

Good luck!