As the latest-generation Airbus A320 aircraft family adds fleet strength and legacy A320s are steadily replaced, the market is shifting rapidly in favor of next-generation aircraft. The inflection point at which active new-generation A320s begin to outnumber active legacy A320s is projected to occur at the end of 2027, given such expected activities as net retirements, storage and new deliveries. That year, the A320neo fleet is expected to number more than 6,100 aircraft, versus 5,800 legacy A320s.
The smallest A320, the A319neo, with a seat capacity of 160, is not popular with airlines outside of China. Given the relative market unpopularity of the smaller narrowbody segment in general, internal competition with the Airbus A220 and competition from the yet-to-be-certified
Boeing 737-7 MAX, the A319neo’s future is bleak. The mainstay A320 competes with the
Boeing 737-8 and -9 but has a healthy orderbook.
Not to be overlooked, the A321 has a firm order backlog of more than 5,300 out of a total family backlog of 7,200 aircraft, according to the Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery database. Top operators of the type are airlines in Western Europe, the Asia-Pacific region and India. The A320neo fleet is expected to grow at a +12% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) globally over 10 years.
The Aviation Week Network’s Tracked Aircraft Utilization tool shows that while narrowbody aircraft utilization dropped dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic to under 40 hr. per month per aircraft from an average of more than 210 hr. per month per aircraft in January 2020, narrowbody utilization recovered to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2023. The A320 family has increased aggregate utilization by 9.7% since July 2019 and 6.7% over the last 12 months, despite lingering issues with new-generation engines that caused extended down times and groundings for A320neos.
Durability upgrades to CFM Leap and Pratt & Whitney GTF engines will contribute to growth in Airbus A320-family Neo demand over the next decade.
Models powered by the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF) engine contributed to a cumulative 6,400 aircraft-on-ground days in June. Pratt & Whitney and MTU recently announced a long-term fix to extend engine time on wing markedly. Dubbed the Advantage program, it is scheduled to roll out interim fixes slowly on legacy engines and introduce dual options on their new production line—both legacy types and the new Advantage engine will be produced simultaneously. Meanwhile, CFM International has been fielding reverse bleed system retrofit kits for the Leap-1A engine this year, and complete fielding is expected in 2026.
Top nonengine third-party MRO providers for the A320 family currently include Airbus, Collins Aerospace, GMR Aero Technic, Honeywell, Lufthansa Technik and Thales. Top operators around the globe include American Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Delta Air Lines and IndiGo.
The maintenance dollar demand follows a pattern similar to that of the fleet, but projections show that the MRO demand inflection point should take place in 2030. Demand is forecast to rise sharply for the newest-generation aircraft, and particularly the A321. Including durability upgrades on the Leap and GTF engines, global annual MRO demand for A320neos is expected to increase to $34.5 billion from $9.3 billion after 10 years.
In the intervening time, maintenance shops should see annual global MRO demand for legacy A320s drop to $12.6 billion from $23 billion after 10 years, a -6.5% CAGR (constant dollar basis). Annual global MRO demand is expected to rise for both legacy A321s and A321neos at a 19.7% CAGR. This compares starkly with the rest of the A320 family, which is forecast to achieve only 0.6% MRO demand CAGR (constant dollar basis) after net fleet changes.