в оптимистичном репорте-прогнозе IATA выделяется глава про поставки самолётов, которых дико не хватает
Aircraft deliveries in 2024 have fallen well short of expectations and remain far from the peak delivery numbers reported in 2018. The supply issues forced production limits,exacerbated by employee strikes, resulting in major delays in 2024 deliveries
Looking ahead to 2025, the delivery forecast is optimistic, at 1,802 aircraft deliveries (Chart 24) which would mark a new record high in aviation history. This estimate has been also revised down due to ongoing production problems (the peak estimate for 2025 was 2,293 aircraft). Further downward revisions are quite possible given that supply chain issues are expected to persist in 2025 and beyond.
The ongoing delays in deliveries have increased the average
age of the global fleet to a record high of 14.8 years, compared to an average age of 13.6 years during 1990-2024
The surge in new aircraft orders seen in 2023 is slowly ending, as the
backlog has reached the highest level in history— 17,000 planes. Additionally, production capacity constraints have led to record-long waiting times for the delivery of new aircraft. Assuming present delivery rates, the current backlog will be filled in 14 years. This ratio averaged six years from 2013 to 2019. Due to long waiting times, several airlines have stopped ordering new aircraft and are prioritizing the acquisition of any available aircraft to meet growing demand.
This increase is particularly notable for narrow bodies, where production capacity constraints are most pronounced. High traffic demand, coupled with capacity constraints, has led to an increased demand for used aircraft, and in turn, to a significant decline in the share of parked fleet, which dropped to 14%, the lowest share since 2019. However, this share is four percentage points above pre-pandemic levels, implying 1,600 more aircraft in storage today compared to 2019. One of the reasons for the higher share of grounded fleets is engine inspections (currently around 700 aircraft, 2% of the global fleet), which might persist in 2025. However, the number of parked aircraft among types impacted by engine issues has started to drop. Should this trend continue,capacity might quickly increase by around 2% next year, adding some relief to the constrained market. Key beneficiaries may include LCCs, which often utilize single-type fleets, which are commonly dominated by the impacted aircraft types.