У них своего населения уже больше ярда. И темпы развития соответствующие. Собственный рынок все сожрет. Не поперхнувшись.
В таких прогнозах мне особенно нравятся третьи и четвёртые знаки.
Chinese airpower reaches for the big leagues in 2021
Chinese airpower reaches for the big leagues in 2021
By Greg Waldron18 December 2020
The development of Chinese airpower will continue to be a major defence theme in 2021, as observers look for enhancements of existing types and the possible emergence of a new stealth bomber.
2020 proved to be another exciting year for Chinese military aviation, with advances seen in key combat and support aircraft programmes. Arguably the biggest news came in October, when footage emerged of a Xian H-6N bomber carrying a long-rumoured ballistic missile along its centreline.
Source: Chinese social media
A screen shot from an October 2020 video of the H-6N carrying what appears to be an air-launched ballistic missile
Details about Chinese programmes are notoriously difficult to come by, fuelled mainly by dubious images and cryptic remarks that emerge in China’s tightly-controlled social media space. Official channels, such as China’s nationalistic Global Times newspaper, often post reports about Chinese military aviation, but their credibility is open to question. Beijing holds its cards close to its chest.
Nonetheless, observers will be looking for several things in 2021. Engines, the perennial bugbear of Chinese aircraft, will be one focus.
China’s premiere fighter, the Chengdu J-20, is flying with a local engine, the Shenyang WS-10 Taihang – early versions used Russian Saturn AL-31s. In November 2020, images emerged of J-20s powered with an updated version of the WS-10, the WS-10C.
The J-20’s ultimate powerplant, however, is the Xian Aero Engine WS-15 Emei. Estimates suggest that the WS-15’s maximum thrust will be 18.4t (180kN), potentially giving the twin-engined J-20 genuine “fifth generation” performance, including supercruise – the ability to travel at supersonic speeds without engaging the afterburners. There are also persistent rumours about a two-seat version of the J-20.
In late 2020 rumours emerged that the Y-20 strategic transport, heretofore powered by Soloviev D-30KP-2s, had operated a maiden flight with the new Shenyang WS-20, a more efficient engine featuring a higher bypass ratio. Should a WS-20-powered Y-20 break cover in 2021, it will mark a milestone both for the programme and China’s broader engine efforts.
Source: Chinese social media
A pair of Chengdu J-20 fighters
Moreover, the coming year could bring more information about the Y-20’s other role as an air-to-air refuelling tanker. With just a handful of older H-6s and a trio of Ilyushin Il-78s earmarked as tankers, air-to-air refuelling is a weak area for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), particularly as it looks to project power further from China’s shores. A high capacity, indigenous tanker in the form of the Y-20 would go some way to rectifying this weakness.
2021 might offer more clarity around China’s other stealth fighter, the AVIC FC-31. Testing has continued with the type, an updated version of the J-31 that appeared in 2014’s Zhuhai air show. It is understood that the PLAAF is not interested in the FC-31, but that the People’s Liberation Army Navy may want it as a new carrier-borne fighter to replace its problematic Shenyang J-15.
One potentially big story for 2021 relates to China’s developmental stealth bomber, the H-20. It is understood that the H-20 will resemble the Northrop Grumman B-2, and provide Beijing with a true strategic bomber capability. Pictures of the new type are greatly anticipated, although some observers believe that China might have difficulty incorporating a sufficiently powerful powerplant.
As China’s most numerous bomber, the H-6 will continue to be a source of major interest, particularly its most advanced variant, the H-6N. In addition to the H-6N’s ability carry a ballistic missile, it is also believed capable of carrying an unmanned air vehicle (UAV).
Finally, UAVs will continue to be a major focus. China has developed UAVs for a broad range of missions, from reconnaissance to cargo carriage. Similar to the west, is it is also looking at the future of air combat, developing unmanned combat air vehicles such as the Dark Sword and Sharp Sword. Tantalising hints about both programmes might – or might not – emerge during 2021.
Берут текущий флот, делают отсечку по определенному возрасту (например, 25 лет), умножают на прогноз роста населения и экономики.
- а пруфы сего факта есть?Но при этом почему-то страстно желают купить наши АЛ-41.
.J-20 fighter to have improved WS-10 engines for mass production
J-20 fighter to have improved WS-10 engines for mass production
Posted on July 31, 2019 by CAS editor — No Comments ↓
Picture of J-20 fighter said to be with Taihang engines
J-20 fighter is now using Russian engine. But according to anonymous sources, the test work of domestic WS-10 engine (Taihang) on J-20 fighters may have been completed. And J-20 fighters are witnessing genuine domestic engine and such versions are about to be mass produced and delivered to the troops.
As China’s fifth-generation stealth fighter, J-20 fighter is originally planned to have a domestic WS-15 turbofan engine. From overseas data, the domestic WS-15 engine is comparable or similar to the US F119 turbofan engine. However, the domestic aero-engine industry has not been able to develop such an engine capability. Therefore, the relevant units are adopting a relatively safe approach, using mature engines to allow the first flight and small batch production of J-20 fighter, which is the so-called A-state (J-20A). Then when WS-15 is mature, A-state will be replaced by B-state (J-20B).
J-20 fighter is now using AL-31FN-SER3 turbofan engine, which is an improved version of AL-31FN. The main improvement is to increase the engine thrust to about 13 tons, and to install FADEC system for improved reliability. However, its overall performance can only be said to be medium-to-high in the third-generation turbofan engine, which limits the performance upgrade of J-20 fighter, and its mass production is also limited by Russian production capacity. Therefore, it is widely speculated that J-20 fighters started to be produced in small batches from 2016. The number of equipment should be less than 50, and the average annual production is only about 10.
As F-22 and F-35 fighters spread around China and the region, China’s Air Force faced a sharp rise in pressure. And J-20 also participated in Red Sword confrontation exercise, and in the face of the four-generation fighters, J-20 fighters scored their opponents and let the Chinese Air Force realize that value of the four-generation fighters will decrease rapidly after 2020. The requirements for the five-generation stealth fighters are more than ever
On the other hand, the domestic WS-15 engine is still in the process of development. It takes time to design and test for flight. However, as the domestically produced Taihang WS-10 engine made breakthrough progress, being installed on the J-16 fighter, and passed practical tests, China’s Air Force decided to replace AL-31FN-SER3 with Taihang modified engine to achieve mass production in advance.
In September 2017, J-20 with the Taihang WS-10 engines had its maiden flight. After two years of test flights, the aircraft should have passed the design appraisal and can be put into mass production. The domestic improved Taihang WS-10 engine thrust is about 13.2 tons. This index is the same as or similar to AL-31FN-SER3, so it will not affect the flight and maneuverability of the aircraft after the replacement. In addition, the Taihang modified engine adopts single crystal blades and FADEC. With advanced technologies such as systems, reliability and fuel consumption have also increased significantly, and overall performance is better than the introduction of AL-31FN-SER3 engine. In particular, it is worth mentioning that the Taihang engine is also planned to have enhanced performance. The latter’s maximum thrust is increased to more than 14 tons, and even 15 tons in emergency situations. These indicators are almost the same as WS-15 engine. It is not excluded that J-20 will have such engine in the future, to improve the performance of J-20, and gain time for WS-15 development.
It is believed that China can produce about 50 four-generation dual-engine heavy fighters in one year, and the output of the Taihang WS-10 engine is more than 100. Chengdu has three J-20 pulse production lines and can produce 36 J-20 fighters per year. Considering the spare engine, 80 Taihang WS-10 engines would be needed, which should be sufficient in terms of engine capacity. Therefore, from 2020 onwards, Chinese Air Force may be equipped with J-20 fighters in batches, with a speed of up to one aviation brigade per year, and a certain capacity to produce J-16 fighter-bombers.
After 2020, the mass production of the J-10C fighter will also come to an end. And Chengdu should also increase J-20 production line to further increase production capacity, and J-20 assembly speed will continue to accelerate. As for WS-15 engine, China’s famous aviation engine expert Jiang Hefu has revealed that WS-15 is close to maturity and it is estimated that it will be put into use in a few years. It can be speculated that the WS-15 engine may be installed onto J-20B around 2020, considering that it takes a period of time for the test flight, and a small batch production trial after the test flight, so the complete state of J-20B fighters can be put into mass production in about 2025, replacing the current J-20A fighters.
Пжалста!
topwar.ru
так прогнозы эти не журналисты пишут же, а специальные подразделения компаний-производителей или нанимаемые ими специальные конторы. И даже у таких признанных зарубежных контор, как например, Teal Group, цифры прогнозов приводятся с точностью до штуки, что не может не удивлять...
WS-10 engine has 7 variants equipped in 5 fighters including J-20
Posted on September 11, 2019 by CAS editor — No Comments ↓
J-16 fighter with China’s homemade engine
In the previous CCTV “Military Life” column, the production line of domestic J-16 fighter was rarely exposed. And the biggest attraction was that J-16 fighter was equipped with a domestic engine.
In the 1980s, the lack of advanced aircraft engines encumbered the development of the entire aviation industry of China. And then China decided to develop a big thrust turbofan engine, which is WS-10 “Taihang” engine.
After 20 years of hard work, in 2005, WS-10/WS-10A was successfully designed. At this time, the maximum thrust of WS-10/WS-10A is about 12.5 tons. This is the first large thrust turbofan engine developed by China.
The original WS-10 prototype was installed on J-11 fighter. After all, the dual-engine fighter test would be more secure. After verification, WS-10A turbofan engine was installed on J-10 and J-11B fighters. There was also an engine stop event during the period, so WS-10/ WS-10A wasn’t put into mass production, and then China turned into the research of adapting WS-10 variants to other fighters.
In 2008, WS-10B/C engine was successively designed, and its maximum thrust reached 13.2 tons, of which the thrust-to-weight ratio reached 8, and the temperature before the turbine was increased to 1800K. Thus, its comprehensive performance reached the first echelon of the world’s third-generation turbofan engines.
WS-10B engine has been in production for J-10C fighter for a period of time. Due to the use of Russia’s AL-31F engine, the specific number of the domestic engine in use is unknown. Another type of WS-10B (temporarily called WS-10B2) is said to be good. WS-10B2 engine has been fully installed in J-16 fighters from the beginning. And since the number of J-16 has exceeded 100, so the number of WS-10B2 engines has also exceeded 100.
As a transitional model of the WS-15 engine, WS-10B minor revision (or WS-10C) has been used on J-20 fighters for several years, but only for trial of a small batch. WS-15 engine will be counted on in the future. In addition, there is an improved version of WS-10B engine, which is WS-10B vector thrust version. J-10B fighter with this type of engine was shown at the Zhuhai Air Show last year, but the number is even smaller!
In addition, J-15 fighter’s modified version also used WS-10 anti-corrosion engine (temporarily called WS-10H) for flight test verification. Although the current news is rare, it is undeniable that it is the future J-15B projectile version will use a large number of WS-10H engines. And J-11D fighter is also likely to use WS-10B engine from the beginning!
WS-10 is considered a replacement for Russian-made AL-31 series engine. As not an AL-31 series engine has been purchased since 2017, this proves that WS-10 series engine has achieved great success and can be used for fully replacement for J-10C, J-11B/BS/D, J-16 and other fighters.
Finally, what may surprise you is that WS-20 large bypass ratio turbofan engine developed for Y-20 transport aircraft and the bomber is actually based on WS-10 engine. After all, part of the previous WS-10 prototype’s technology comes from CFM-56 high bypass ratio turbofan engine, and it is not difficult to turn it back now.
According to military analyst Bu Wu, WS-10 “Taihang” engine has at least seven variants including A/B/B2/C/vector version/H/WS-20, equipped in at least five fighters including J-10, J-11, J-15, J-16 and J-20, are could be called the most advanced turbofan engine made in China!
Понятно, что на мультике. Вопрос в том, соответствует ли этот мультик реальности или нет?
ПАО "Мотор Сич" заключило контракт с китайской AVIC International на поставку 400 двигателей АИ-322
ПАО "Мотор Сич" заключило контракт с китайской AVIC International на поставку 400 двигателей АИ-322
"Мотор Сич" на днях подписала крупный контракт на поставку авиационных газотурбинных двигателей для Китая.
Контракт подписан с неназванной китайской компанией на поставку 400 двигателей АИ-322, используемых на китайских учебно-боевых самолетах L-15. Ориентировочная стоимость контракта - около 800 миллионов долларов.
Все это проходит на фоне того, что США ввели санкции против китайской компании Skyrizon, юридического владельца ПАО "Мотор Сич".
В течение 2019 г. ПАО "Мотор Сич" экспортировало в Китай 45 турбореактивных двигателей АИ-322 и 22 АИ-25ТЛК на общую сумму около 98 млн. долл. Импортером АИ-322 выступала компания AVIC International Holding Corp. (39F, AVIC Center, Huafu Road 1018, Futian District, Shenzhen). Цена – 1,875 млн. долл. за ед. Кроме того, поставлялись комплектующие агрегаты для авиадвигателей АИ-222К-25 и АИ-322, а также возвращались отремонтированные ранее поставленные двигатели АИ-222К-25 и АИ-322.
ТРДДФ АИ-322Ф предназначен для установки в качестве маршевого двигателя на УТС (УБС) типа L-15 LIFT. Двигатель является модификацией опытного двигателя АИ-222К-25Ф и отличается от него применением альтернативных ПКИ, разрабатываемых по программе импортозамещения. Работы на ГП «Ивченко-Прогресс» по созданию ТРДДФ АИ-322Ф были начаты в 2012 г. Испытания двигателя были завершены в 2016 году.
